April 3, 2025
In a recent survey conducted among our exclusive community of blockchain and Real World Asset (RWA) executives, interesting perspectives emerged regarding Circle’s upcoming initial public offering (IPO). The stablecoin giant recently filed for an IPO following a substantial $1.7 billion windfall from its stablecoin reserves.
Survey Results: To Invest or Not to Invest?
Our community poll asked a straightforward question: “Would you buy Circle following IPO?” The results revealed divided opinions among industry leaders:
- 56% of respondents see tremendous growth potential, selecting “Yep, the growth opportunities are huge”
- 44% of respondents expressed hesitation, with responses split between concerns about competition from other stablecoins and commitments to alternative investments
Market Context
Circle, the company behind the USDC stablecoin, is seeking approval to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “CRCL.” This move comes at an interesting time for the stablecoin sector, which has seen increasing competition and regulatory scrutiny.
Expert Commentary and Financial Analysis
Several community members provided insights that help contextualize these results:
An industry leader (former Morgan Stanly) succinctly observed that “Yield is key” – highlighting how declining interest rates could potentially make Circle’s business model less attractive to investors. This sentiment was echoed by others who mentioned that “declining rates makes it less attractive.”
A particularly detailed analysis was shared by one executive from a post by @TheOneandOmsy that raised several red flags about Circle’s IPO filing:
- Gross margins are declining significantly, dropping from 59.9% in 2022 to 39.3% in 2024 (a 33% decrease over two years)
- High operational costs, with over $250 million annually in compensation and an additional $140 million in G&A expenses
- USDC circulation showing stagnant growth (43,554 in 2022 vs 43,857 in 2024)
- Interest rates, which drive core income, have likely peaked and are expected to decrease (with a “90% chance of 2 cuts this year”)
- A price-to-earnings ratio of 32x for 2024 earnings is considered expensive given the company’s loss of “mini-monopoly” status and structural growth challenges
- Regulatory concerns as the “core US market being deregulated and banks + FIs about to crash the private party”
The analysis concludes that the IPO “feels like a hail mary for some liquidity before the squad rolls in” – suggesting the timing may be opportunistic rather than strategic for long-term growth.
Looking Ahead
As Circle moves forward with its IPO process, these mixed sentiments from industry insiders highlight both the optimism surrounding stablecoin infrastructure and the practical concerns about yield generation in a potentially lower interest rate environment.
The IPO will be closely watched as a barometer for how traditional markets value crypto-native financial infrastructure companies. With Circle’s stablecoin serving as a crucial bridge between traditional and decentralized finance, its public market performance could have significant implications for the broader blockchain ecosystem.
This blog post is based on an internal survey of blockchain and RWA executives and represents their personal investment perspectives rather than financial advice.